Global renewable energy capacity additions are projected to decline in 2026 for the first time in six years, as grid constraints increasingly limit the expansion of solar and wind power.

The warning was issued by International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Director-General Francesco La Camera on 27 October during Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW). His assessment highlights the growing infrastructure challenges facing the global energy transition, with electricity network capacity emerging as a major factor determining how quickly renewable energy projects can become operational.

La Camera said the amount of renewable energy capacity installed worldwide in 2026 is likely to fall below the 2025 figure. The anticipated decline follows a record-breaking year in which global renewable capacity increased by 692 gigawatts (GW), representing 15.5% growth and bringing total installed capacity to 5,149 GW.

However, the projected slowdown does not necessarily indicate weakening investment or reduced interest in renewable energy development. Rather, it reflects the widening gap between the rapid construction of renewable power facilities and the capacity of electricity networks to transmit and distribute the electricity they produce.

The problem is becoming increasingly apparent in major renewable energy markets, particularly China, Australia and Japan, where existing grid infrastructure is struggling to accommodate expanding generation capacity.

China, the world’s largest renewable energy producer, is experiencing slower development as its electricity networks cannot consistently absorb all the power generated. La Camera identified grid limitations as a significant factor affecting the country’s renewable energy expansion.

The scale of the problem was evident during the first half of 2026, when China curtailed enough renewable electricity to supply Mexico for an entire year.

Renewable energy curtailment occurs when electricity networks cannot accommodate all the power generated, requiring operators to reduce production despite the availability of renewable resources. The reported volume of curtailed electricity demonstrates the operational and economic consequences of expanding power generation without making equivalent investments in transmission and distribution systems.

Similar difficulties are affecting Australia and Japan, where the ability to accommodate additional renewable electricity increasingly depends on existing network capacity and the speed at which infrastructure improvements can be delivered.

China’s slowdown also has wider implications for the global energy sector. The country has been a major contributor to worldwide renewable capacity growth through extensive investments in solar and wind power. Consequently, weaker additions in its market could significantly affect global installation figures.

La Camera indicated that growth in other countries would probably not be sufficient to offset China’s reduced expansion, although he did not provide a specific numerical projection for total global renewable energy additions in 2026.

The development follows several years of strong growth in renewable electricity generation. In 2025, renewable sources represented 85.6% of all newly installed power generation capacity globally, according to IRENA.

Solar power accounted for the largest share, with approximately 510 GW of additional capacity installed during the year. Wind energy contributed another 159 GW.

While these figures demonstrate the rapid expansion of renewable energy, they also highlight why installed capacity alone cannot provide a complete picture of progress in the energy transition.

Electricity generated from solar and wind facilities must be transported to consumers, balanced against demand and integrated into networks that were often designed around different electricity generation patterns. Without adequate infrastructure, newly installed renewable capacity may not translate into an equivalent increase in electricity that consumers can actually use.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also identified inadequate grid infrastructure as a major barrier to the energy transition. At least 3,000 GW of renewable energy projects worldwide are currently awaiting grid connections, highlighting the growing backlog between project development and access to electricity networks.

This challenge indicates that securing land, financing and technology is no longer sufficient to guarantee that renewable energy projects can proceed. Access to electricity networks and the readiness of existing infrastructure have become critical factors in determining whether projects can reach commercial operation.

For governments and investors, the situation raises important questions about how funding is distributed across the electricity sector. Although considerable investment has gone into developing renewable generation facilities, transmission lines, substations, distribution networks and electricity system flexibility also require substantial capital and lengthy development periods.

When network investment fails to keep pace with generation expansion, developers face connection delays, restrictions on electricity output and uncertainty about the commercial viability of their projects.

The challenge is particularly important for emerging and developing economies, including African countries working to increase renewable energy production while expanding electricity access.

Solar and wind power offer African countries opportunities to diversify their energy mix, reduce reliance on fossil fuels and provide electricity to communities that remain underserved by national power networks. However, inadequate transmission infrastructure, limited distribution capacity and insufficient system planning can prevent these investments from delivering their full benefits.

For African energy markets, the priority extends beyond attracting financing for additional renewable energy projects. Electricity systems must also have the capacity to connect new facilities and reliably transport power to consumers.

Countries planning large-scale solar and wind developments will need to coordinate generation investments with grid expansion, energy storage, regional electricity interconnections and more flexible power markets.

This is especially important for projects located far from major electricity demand centres or in areas where existing networks have limited capacity.

The global situation reinforces the need to incorporate grid development into renewable energy planning from the beginning. Generation facilities and supporting electricity infrastructure must advance together to ensure that new capacity contributes effectively to power supply.

Achieving this will require closer coordination among governments, electricity utilities, regulators, project developers and financiers. Clear regulatory arrangements will also be necessary to establish connection procedures and responsibilities for infrastructure investment.

The projected reduction in global renewable energy additions in 2026 marks an important development in the energy transition. Following years of rapid expansion in solar and wind installations, future growth will increasingly depend on whether electricity networks can accommodate the additional generation.

With at least 3,000 GW of renewable energy projects awaiting grid connections worldwide, modernising power infrastructure is becoming just as important as constructing new renewable energy facilities.

The industry’s measure of progress is consequently shifting beyond the volume of renewable capacity installed to how much electricity can be successfully connected, integrated into power systems and delivered to consumers.

Without corresponding improvements in electricity networks, the expansion of renewable energy generation could continue to outpace the infrastructure required to make its benefits available.

Source: Africa Sustainability Matters